Thailand Has a New Prime Minister, but the Same Old Power Brokers

This could have been a new era for Thai democracy.

The public resoundingly ended a near-decade of military rule last year, handing an electoral mandate to a progressive party and a forceful prime minister candidate who represented none of the old power makers.

Just 15 months later, things are entirely different, and the voters had nothing to do with it. The winning party has been banned, and its candidate barred from holding office. The consensus choice who emerged then to form a government as prime minister was abruptly ousted by a top court this week.

On Friday morning, Parliament dealt the next card up, choosing Paetongtarn Shinawatra — the 37-year-old heir to a powerful and polarizing Thai political dynasty — to be the country’s new prime minister.

For many Thais, the decisions made in the past week were the latest evidence that the country is controlled by a military and royalist establishment that is bent on denying the people’s will, using the courts and the army’s presence to winnow the field.

The sudden rise of Ms. Paetongtarn has seemingly settled a period of political limbo, at least for a while. But it has added to the frustration of voters and political activists who had worked within the democratic system.

“I don’t understand what kind of games they are playing,” said Nawaphon Thoopkaew, 23, a student at Kasetsart University. “And for what?”

The selection of Ms. Paetongtarn was a result of a two-day backroom negotiation that began hours after the former prime minister, Srettha Thavisin, was ousted by the Constitutional Court on an ethics violation charge. She received 319 votes in the House of Representatives, surpassing the 247 she needed. There were no other candidates.

“I hope I can do my best to make this country go forward,” a visibly nervous Ms. Paetongtarn told reporters, adding, “my hands are shaking.”

Ms. Paetongtarn’s acceptance of the nomination surprised some observers. People close to her had previously said she was reluctant to jump into the fray. A former deputy chief executive of a family-run hotel management company, Ms. Paetongtarn’s résumé is thin for someone seeking national leadership, having played only advisory roles rather than directly governing.

But she is the daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, the tycoon who once led the country as prime minister. After he was ousted by a military coup in 2006, his supporters battled anti-Thaksin forces in violent street protests that carried on for years. Even through the roughly 17 years he was in self-imposed exile, his political parties and his chosen candidates continued to win elections.

Ms. Paetongtarn was one of those chosen candidates in the election last year, an early front-runner for Pheu Thai. Her youth presented a possible appeal for a generation of voters that has gravitated toward the mostly young opposition.

On Thursday evening, when her nomination to become prime minister was put forward, Ms. Paetongtarn told reporters that she is close to her father, who always gives her advice.

If her main asset is that she is a Shinawatra, it is also one of her biggest troubles. Thailand’s politics are perilous, and few understand that as intimately as her family.

Her aunt, Yingluck, Thailand’s first female prime minister, was ousted in a 2014 coup and had to flee the country. Her uncle, Somchai Wongsawat, was also removed as prime minister when the Constitutional Court ordered the dissolution of his People Power Party in 2008.

Ms. Paetongtarn’s ascension means that Mr. Thaksin is again at the forefront of Thai politics, a prospect unthinkable until a few years ago. His return was in part set in motion by his rivals, beginning with last year’s victory by the Move Forward Party.

The election results stunned an establishment that saw that party, which had championed changes to a law that makes criticism of the monarchy a crime, as a dire threat. Blocking its rise required teaming up with Mr. Thaksin, whose Pheu Thai Party was the second-biggest in the winning coalition.

Pheu Thai ultimately defected and joined the conservatives. After Mr. Thaksin made a surprise return to Thailand, it was soon clear what the quid pro quo was. Although given an eight-year sentence for corruption and abuse of power, he never had to serve a day in jail.

But Mr. Thaksin has seemingly fallen out with the establishment again. In June, he was indicted on accusations of insulting the monarchy. At the same time, the case against Prime Minister Srettha, his protégé, began moving forward, ending with his ouster by the Constitutional Court on Wednesday.

Now it is Ms. Paetongtarn’s turn in the spotlight, and she will be closely scrutinized by Mr. Thaksin’s rivals and by the establishment.

For the 72 million Thais stuck in an exhausting cycle of elections, party dissolutions, protests and coups, there is a dreary sense of déjà vu.

The political upheaval has taken a toll on Thailand’s once-surging economy, now among the region’s weakest. Many of the country’s young professionals are determined to leave Thailand, in part because of the politics.

“It tells you that the Thai people’s vote doesn’t really matter, because in the span of one week, the court disenfranchised more than 14 million voters and unseated a democratically elected prime minister,” said Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow with the Thailand Studies Program at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

“To me, this amounts to a judicial coup that not only nullified the election results, but also establishes a very dangerous legal precedent that allows judicial institutions to intervene and check the power of future democratically elected governments for many years to come.”

But others say there is still room for optimism. One striking feature of Thailand is that despite all the repression at the top, voter and civic engagement remains high. It is home to a vibrant opposition and civil society organizations unafraid to speak up.

“The one thing that, for better or worse, is really enshrined in this system, is the idea of having elections, regardless of how seriously those elections are taken,” said Michael J. Montesano, associate senior fellow of the Thailand Studies Program at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

The public has not come out in the streets to protest the latest machinations, a difference from previous instances when democracy was interfered with. The Move Forward Party, which won the most votes in last year’s election and then was banned, has constantly reminded people to make their voices known at the ballot box.

The party has a successor already vowing to keep up the fight: the People’s Party. Their supporters believe that a repeated election victory for the party in three years’ time could make it harder for the establishment to repudiate the results.

Within hours of its launch last Friday, it exceeded its fund-raising target, three weeks ahead of schedule.

Kasit Piromya, a former foreign minister, points out that most of the generals and the heads of Thailand’s political parties are in their 70s, while the People’s Party is made up of people in their 30s and 40s, with new ideas and a firm ideology.

“This is the last hurrah of the establishment to retain power,” he said.

Muktita Suhartono contributed reporting.